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The future of the trance industry

Spindrift
Spindrift

Started Topics :  33
Posts :  1560
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 15:49
I have been a bit excited lately when reading some statements from label owners in this forum with regards about the old subject about mp3 and how it should be killing the scene.

So I decided it could be good with a litlle constructive discussion on the subject.
I know it has been discussed many times already, but I find the lack of facts, objectiveness and perspective disturbing, so I will try to explain what I know about the subject anyway.

What is the cause of low sales in the trance industry at the moment?

Of course that is the most burning question in the industry at the moment.
While the mainstream music industry has seen sales dropping by 15% in the last years, the figure for trance is more like 90%.
How come?
Since the mid 90's when a good sales figure for a release was 30 000 copies we are now at a state where it's considered good to sell 3000.
It seems to be very obviously three predominant factors that could be behind the low sales.

1) A smaller market.
Trance was hip in the mid 90's. I remember watching channel 4 news in the UK 95, and 20 minutes of the 30 minutes show was dedicated to explaining that trance was the next big thing.
For a while it seemed like the scene was rising from it's underground status to become mainstream. During that period sales sky rocketed and was up in the today totally unreachable figures.

2) Inflation in labels and artists
Even if the market actually have shrunk a lot we have a lot more labels and artists. We all know that a lot of the people in the scene is running a label, making music or DJ'ing.
They all want to make money, but with no increase in the number of fans it will of course be hard.

3) People buying less music
Here it's harder to try to evaluate how big difference is. Me knowingly there is no research about trance fans buying habits during the last 10 years.
Generally though many people in to trance tend to not buy a lot of CD's, and go to parties to hear the music.
It might be that when trance was trendy we had more people buying CD's since they where less like the typical trance fan spending their money on parties, drugs and travelling.

Lastly we have the argument that to some seems to be the explanation behind everything.
That deserves an whole other paragraph.

Is Mp3 is killing the scene?

We hear it all the time, and discussion go back and forth.
Is there any data or facts that we can use to analyze this?
Of course not specifically for the trance scene, but forrester. the most renowned economical research institute have been doing research about mp3's and mainstream music.
They queried 1000 online consumers and according to the press release they came to the following conclusion:
Quote:

"There is no denying that times are tough for the music business, but not because of downloading. Based on surveys of 1,000 online consumers, we see no evidence of decreased CD buying among frequent digital music consumers," said Josh Bernoff, principal analyst at Forrester. "Plenty of other causes are viable, including the economic recession and competition from surging video game and DVD sales. But labels will soon discover that there are several simple ways of satisfying today's sophisticated digital music consumers."

"First, consumers will demand their right to find music from any label, not just two or three. Second, they want the right to control their music by burning it onto CDs or copying it onto an MP3 player. Finally, consumers will demand the right to pay by the song or album, not just via the subscription services now offered by pressplay, MusicNet, FullAudio, and EMusic," added Bernoff. "We call this set of features -- which any paid music service must meet to satisfy customers -- the Music Bill Of Rights."


You can get the full report here if you are interested enough to spend $350
http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Report/Summary/0,1338,14854,FF.html

Their conclusion in a nutshell is that people who download the most also buy the most music.
The top 5% that Forrester classified as "digital music lovers" buy 15% of the Cd's.
The "lovers" and "learners" together make up 22% of the population, but buy 36% of the CD's.

A good article analyzing the report and adding a few other interesting findings is:
http://danbricklin.com/recordsales.htm

Basically what Bricklin says is that according to the data from RIAA you will see a correlation between price and sales wich could easily explain the drop in sales for the mainstream industry.

You also have to take into account the global recession, combined with the upsurge in mobile phone usage, video games and computers.
The wallets of the potential customers is just not unlimited, and there is just a lot more for young people today to spend their money on.
So the dropping sales should not come as a surprise for anyone with a slight clue about economics.

Back to the trance scene then.
In this scene it's possible that people in general download more than other groups and buy less.
Like mentioned there is a tendency to spen money on parties, drugs and travels, so the money is many times not there to buy many CD's.
But in my experience that is not new in the scene, and copying was for many years the only way to get hold of the music.
It had a period when it was more mainstream and people that lived more normal lifes started buying CD's.
We now have to accept that this scene is not mainstream, and that it's hard to make money from freaks only.

So is there a future for trance? Will it die?
Since the scene was very alive and well in the beginning of the 90's when there was pretty much only copying I have hard to see why copying should kill it. But economically things look very bad indeed.
So...

What is the future of the trance industry?

In the mainstream industry the discussions is now going on about which model of distibution will take over.

In our scene it seems like most labels just hope to run things pretty much as they always done and see what happens to them.
That can be very unfortunate IMO for the scene.
Basically you have now two competing models, the label model or the provider model.

CD's will start loosing sales and legal downloading will be more and more predominant. That most analysist seem to agree on.
We have now seen sites like iTunes doing quite well and as a natural consequence labels have to start thinkiing about what place they will have in the future.

iTunes is showing the way for the provider model.
Artists can sign up directly to many of the download shops now in existance.
The shops still is very careful with overdoing that right now because they still need to be on good terms with the labels and don't want them to get alarmed about what is going on.

Reality is obvious if you think though.
What is the need for labels and distributors if all they do is submitting the tracks to a site?
They don't put out money for pressing or have warehouses with stock to send out to shops.
Who will care about what label you are on if it's all a bunch of tracks on a site?

So if the shops do not really need the labes and the artists do not really need them, belive me they will be history.
The trance labels that have started thinking about digital distribution is now willingly signing up to the online shops that have been set up.

It seems to me like the trance scene is heading towards the provider model in the future.

If the label model would have a chance to survive it would mean that we need some labels that take on to set up their own service and offer downloading and direct sales without an intermittent distibutor.
Thats the only way they have a chance against the providers.

The providers will not be passionate like the label owners and a lot more commercially minded.
So i rather see the future in the hands of the labels myself, but as things look we will be reliant on the providers instead.

And it seems like the people starting up as providers now know a lot more about the market and have done a lot more thinking and analysis, so they will play with the labels as a cat with a mouse.

But I hope the labels have a think if it's not possible for them to create their own means of distribution and start acting a bit more like providers themself.
Because to give away their profit to both distributors and download sites will not make them finacially viable and will help them remain an attractive option for the artists.

Ok, there you go, a little essay about the subject
At least I don't have to spam every other thread I can find about the subject with my views for a while......

Comments and thoughts of course welcome.

Peace
Leo

          (``·.¸(``·.¸(``·.¸¸.·`´)¸.·`´)¸.·`´)
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sherlockalien
IsraTrance Junior Member

Started Topics :  22
Posts :  629
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 16:02
as with the other thread, ´well said, spindrift´...

one of the key points I think is:

"In our scene it seems like most labels just hope to run things pretty much as they always done and see what happens to them. "

yes! As I said on the other thread, people just keep doing the same.. same formulaic trance, nobody taking chances, shitty covers even on big labels, no concept products, no different creative advertisement, no different ideas for making cds more attractive, no ´joint label parties´ or cds, nothing of the sort... same old same old...


as for me, what do I do? I download music, yes... but I keep on buying my favourite cds (maybe 20 in the last 2 months), and keep on going to many festivals, which is a very good way of supporting the artists... I also try to give ideas for friends who are artists, so they can also give ideas for their labels...

One thing is for sure.. complaining about people downloading music, and doing nothing different with the label or music is really stupid and will lead you at most into ´mediocretiveness´ (hahah I doubt that word exists)
phobium
Phobium

Started Topics :  14
Posts :  718
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 16:09
Very good post, Spindrift. Very interesting. I don't have alot to add, just two things.
The first one isn't about trance really, but about low cd sales. In the 90s alot of people upgraded their old vinyl collections, so they bought the cd of albums they already had. Perhaps the same will happen now with sacd?
Second; it was much easier getting ahold of trance cd's a few years ago, you could get the 'distance to goa', 'destination goa' and other cd's "everywhere". In norway these days, there are no shops that sell psytrance, you have to order it yourself.           ________________________
www.phobium.net
http://phobium.bandcamp.com/
________________________
Spindrift
Spindrift

Started Topics :  33
Posts :  1560
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 16:24
@sherlockalien
I did not get in to that, but of course a important function that labels could have advantage is gig bookings. They could start acting more as promotion agencies and take part of the income from gigs as a management fee.
And yes, for the consumer going to parties and festivals is just as good way of supporting the artists.

@phobium
Indeed the life expectancy of any media is limited, and CD's is no difference. So from the experience with vinyl and cassettes you would expect CD sales to be dropping by now.
I guess we will have both sacd or audio DVD as well as downloading coming in as new media very soon, and from experience sales should rise again when that is happening.

You second point is basically what I was trying to say about trance being for a breif period bordering to mainstream.
I had a track on the destination goa compilation no 2, and I also remember advertising on TV and in the underground in stockholm from the biggest superstore in sweden. It was trendy and also non hippies bought it           (``·.¸(``·.¸(``·.¸¸.·`´)¸.·`´)¸.·`´)
« .....www.ResonantEarth.com..... »
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HandA
Inactive User

Started Topics :  9
Posts :  890
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 16:31
You just fail to take on thing into consideration in you so-called "factual" post. The access to the internet was almost no-excistant or very limited in 1994-1997 when we saw the high sales. That says more to me than all your explanations which I am sorry to say dont impress me much. Yes you are right about the whole issue about mobilephones ect. BUT to say that the scene was more mainstream back then and that it's more underground today is first of all not at all factual and secondly in my opinion not correct. My experince is that there's way more people into the scene these days. Possible thanks to mp3's

I still consider the Internet and mp3's the biggest factor why sales have decreased so drastically. It's very very simple even though some individuals wan't to make it seem more complex! It's the most easy thing in the world and very comfortable to sit behind your screen and share music. And you dont have to go to a shop anymore. Then there's the whole issue about ethics. Many studies especially among college students in USA have shown that the students think it's 100% ok to download music, movies ect. without paying for it. They consider it to be very normal and their right not to pay for entertainment.

I am all for alternative ways to sell and distribute music but so far nothing have changed even with alternative ways popping up each day. The BIG mainstream artists still get their millions of dollars. The small artists have lost their butter on the bread and are struggeling to even be able to make music and only 5% get enough gigs to live from it. Those are the facts!

I am still very sceptic simply because I believe that people will keep sharing and download music for free even with alternative ways to support the artists directly and lower prises ect ect. People dont consider not paying for music ethically wrong and want what they can get - Free of charge !!!
Spindrift
Spindrift

Started Topics :  33
Posts :  1560
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 16:46
HandA
So you basically think that there is:

1) As big increase in trance fans as in number of releases
2) Trance fans is so much more inclined to download instead of buying that that would explain why trance releases sell 90% less instead of 15%
3) Trance fans did not copy much music before the filesharing and respected licensing rights back then
4) People nowadays in the bad economy we have can still spend what the do on their mobiles, games and computer hardware and still buy CD's
5) Trance is still advertised on TV and can be bought in superstores

Sure downloading can account for a few percent, but I don't find it plausible to account for the sales in the trance industry.
Your arguments do not in any way convince me otherwise.

And things is changing, thats a fact, and mainstream lables is currently thining hard how to adapt.
You just can't run a buisness today by waiting for the changes and see what happens to you, you need to stay on top.
That small undwerground artists struggle might not change, although they might get a better chance in the future if the lables in the scene manage to keep up with relity.           (``·.¸(``·.¸(``·.¸¸.·`´)¸.·`´)¸.·`´)
« .....www.ResonantEarth.com..... »
(¸.·`´(¸.·`´(¸.·`´``·.¸)``·.¸)``·.¸)

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traveller
IsraTrance Senior Member

Started Topics :  234
Posts :  3803
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:06
When people start to think about the commercial aspects of the scene in an online forum (pretty much weekly) it can't be anything but downhill from there on..           "The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program."
- Larry Niven
phobium
Phobium

Started Topics :  14
Posts :  718
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:11
Quote:

On 2005-01-31 16:24, Spindrift wrote:

@phobium

I had a track on the destination goa compilation no 2, and I also remember advertising on TV and in the underground in stockholm from the biggest superstore in sweden. It was trendy and also non hippies bought it




Hehe, yeah I remember that. The same thing happens to most genres. Alot of kids used to buy hardcore/gabber cd's. Not alot of that going on even though the genres are still alive.
When people get exposed to music enough, they will eventually like it. So I'm sure if someone started heavy marketing for psytrance again, the sales would rise...           ________________________
www.phobium.net
http://phobium.bandcamp.com/
________________________
traveller
IsraTrance Senior Member

Started Topics :  234
Posts :  3803
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:20
You know if there's real talent behind the artist and if the artist truly loves this music is shouldn't be too hard to make a decent living on doing music for tv shows, radio plays, tv adds, pop groups and maybe even movies. And then for the love of the music use some spare time on making psytrance. I know atleast Prometheus does music for tv adds and even won a price for the score he did for some nike add. Also won some price for some soundtrack he did for some film..           "The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program."
- Larry Niven
traveller
IsraTrance Senior Member

Started Topics :  234
Posts :  3803
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:24
..and then if your psytrance is good (widely liked anyways) life is good! You get to travell for free to pretty much anywhere you want in the whole freaking world. That should be price enough in my humble opinion..           "The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program."
- Larry Niven
Spindrift
Spindrift

Started Topics :  33
Posts :  1560
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:29
@traveller
Things will go downhill because people think??
I would think the oppsite, but I guess you mean the talk about economy and trance is what is bothering you.

But with your second post I agree.
Personally I am not so concerned with the financials involved. I have been releasing music since 10 years back. Not a lot, a bit more then 20 tracks in total, but still it's quite amazing that so far I earned less money from those releases than half a days work doing a TV jingle.
And that was not for Nike, that was for a small production company with tight budgets.
So I can agree that the talk about money in this scene can seem silly.
But the talk is there nevertheless creating a lot of bad vibes, and I had to voice my opnion about what I feel about that side of the story as well.
          (``·.¸(``·.¸(``·.¸¸.·`´)¸.·`´)¸.·`´)
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Vagator Vibhushan
Inactive User

Started Topics :  40
Posts :  444
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 17:36
trance as a genre for sure has more people today that it did in early 90s...u cant argue that...what u are saying is that people pay for it less, which could be true for any genre, or media.

Yes, a new world is upon us, but when was it not? The only thing one can say is that progress itself has become more rapid, so we have that much less time to react and adapt.

For me the ideal is to be able to download a new artist's music, and support a big one through gigs...but sometimes ofcourse, even vice-versa...its not about ethics anymore, its about a new world order which u can either decry like the Church which castigated Galileo, or embrace as someone who accepts reality despite is unsettling nature. And btw, what are ethics if they don't quarry a survivng skill, albeit in the long run? Historically, its been the weapon the bad losers have used against the innovative.

In India, the Bollywood is the second most prolific film industry in the world, but do u know how actors actually survive? Through shows...so why can't trance artists?

Besides, and very importantly, when most of the trance music being created now-a-days is dancefloor and dancing centered, why would it not be fair to expect that people would prefer to hear it at parties?

Yes for sure, labels have to rethink their business models, and like u said, a booking agency might be the best available recourse.
Spindrift
Spindrift

Started Topics :  33
Posts :  1560
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 19:31
I cannot agree that trance seems more widespread than the MID 90's when sales was high.
Just looking at the parties in sweden, goa and London wich I used to frequent thru the years there really was many times more people attending.

And like mentioned before, it was promoted by mainstream media during the high sales period which of course help sales a lot.
I know people who never been to a party and bought destination goa because they was exposed to it thru the media.

It might be more globally widespread now, and places like eastern europe, Russia and India sure seem to have more followers.
Fact is though that the countries where it has become more popular has very few CD buying customers.
Partly because economy, partly because of none or very bad availability.           (``·.¸(``·.¸(``·.¸¸.·`´)¸.·`´)¸.·`´)
« .....www.ResonantEarth.com..... »
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_Vanessa_


Started Topics :  5
Posts :  235
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 20:10
My say in this is very simple

Good music makes good crowd that makes good parties that makes good promotion that makes good demand that brings new ideas that involves new technoly that demand new young people that gives a new reliable way of income that will probably also brind lots of pirates that will expand the GOOD music even more that will multiply the new party goers even more that will upset the old freaks into complain that the scene is not the same anymore, then they feel not welcome then they go, then no multiply happens, no inspiration for good music, no undrestanding of why these happens... no more illegal downloads cause no one else interested, and labels still trying to undrestand the facts and circuntances, fuckinng work hard to make a good track, and make good music that will lead good vibe calling goog crowd which will adapt your work to new technology and make labels understand that yesterday it was before yesterday it was vinil, yesterday CD, today download (if I am up to date), tomorrow who knows, it is the job of the bussiness person to keep informed of what is going on, and if their artist make good music that will actually bring enough income to bring on to their life what is new in the non stopping technoly then it won't happen complain, but hey, it will only happen if there is good music where I can spread to good people and imprint new crowd and not having the fucking old freaks to complain about them, and also not wasting them time trying to stop downloads, once I have the fucking truck playing softly in my speakers why will I by CDs for, that is fake to think people do that, and I take my hat of to those who can actually be so genuine and do it, they must have a excellent life to be able to buy all the music they want to listen to and still fallow them to their gigs. I have no idea how big is the scene nowadays, but I sense must people who goes to parties and fell up the cofres with their cach are not the freaks at all, so if the complainers want to make their life run out of this, start to work, money is never dropped from the sky, and also, not jump to anything by excitment is a good omen aswell, you make music for love, great, if you make music for living think of who would listen to it. It is not a comercial thing, 'the commercial parties' are where people get to know the scene and don't expect them to came already buying your stuf if they can download it. When they do download they will just listen to your work, and if is good, someone who will hear your name from them and have enough toppet to organize a party will call you there to play, and if you play good enough you will be called somewhere else and on. It is up to you to go back to the studio and make new fucking tracks, and that is where some labels loose. Artists are not having enough time to make new tracks, and they loose what they do for trading their unrealeased stuff for other new stuff, inspiration can only come from good crowd in order to make money, if they try trading one anothers inspiration they get nowhere, one mistake leads to another and another, and when you open your eyes you can't do with it. So once again, luck you if you have had the lucky to make loads of money out of something, but as far I can see there are a banch of non freaks looking for something new for their lives and if you are good enough no dawnloads will make you loose, you may just have to adapt with new way of having your incomes, the only thing that can stop you is inspiration, so get the hell out of here and go to work if you live from this, if you don't stay. This is tiring, and sorry I don't even know what I am saying
_Vanessa_


Started Topics :  5
Posts :  235
Posted : Jan 31, 2005 20:37
ah and I forgot to mention something, as I am not posting or having the patience to read any of these giant posts again

It is not only psytrance that makes an excessive amout of download, it is the same with pop music, rap and even gospel. If the technology is there it is to be used, as it is not only psy-freaks that have got two arms and two legs(respects for those who doesn't), everything is created to facilitate our lives, and we have to adapt to it, there will always be a way, it depends on how positive we are, I've made myself some tracks and it was great to listen to them, I may had wished to listen to it at a big sound sistem at parties but I know it wouldn't generate any money and if did it would have to go through hands of experients or professianals, and I also heard some amazing tracks of non professionals also, it is all a matter of facts. Again and again, money does not come from the sky, the more lables put in to it, the more they will get, annd it is very considarable adea od become the server, as also became the ones who will print the cds and distribute it, if there is this crise, there is only one way to deal with it, young people will not stop listening to music, seaching for new feelings and going out party, labels just's got to adapt to the new rules, and the key is only one, inspiration and understanding on whom with you dealing with.

I am not into everything that happens and I know very little, but think about it, we get into a gap made by our own mistakes, it is only up to us to get out of the gap. And have it as an experience
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