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Technological Terror: Death of Today
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Kaz
IsraTrance Full Member
Started Topics :
90
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2268
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 14:58
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Let's do a short history lesson. Ten years ago, the internet was VERY small, and most online file-swapping was done via dedicated BBSs (Bulletin Board Systems that specialized in games or art, no mp3s of course since no one would spend 3MB for a lousy 3 minutes of music) at low (2400-14400bps) rates, but that was OK, since people didn't have much space on their hard drives anyways (120MB?!? WOW!).
Today, we're talking at least twenty times that speed on internet connections, over a hundred times more storage space, and you can get everything through the internet without having any trouble looking for it.
Let's look ten years into the future then. Let's assume that in ten years, we'll have connections ten times as fast, with fifty times more storage room, and the internet will have truely anonymous file-sharing (considering a harsh slowing in advancement on all technological fronts).
We can also make a safe bet many more people will have computers, and out of the people who have computers a higher percent will be connected to the internet.
You think labels are having trouble now? Well progress is a bitch, and if we make the assumptions that technological advancement will CONSIDERABLY slow down, then file-sharing plague will be extreme, only we'll be talking about people swapping DVDs instead of crummy encoding of videos, and music losslessly compressed, thus eliminating all of the problems with encoding quality on loud systems. More people will have access to this, more people will be aware of these options.
Ten years into the future, what is a trend on the rise today could crush the recording industry, worldwide. Even if all the recording industry moves to 24bit 96KHz 6 channel surround, we're still talking about only 10 times the file size today - but it doesn't matter, eventually technology will overcome these limits.
Unless there's a fundamental change in all of the media industries, it's a matter of time before their only income will be in the cinema or on a stage. Outside those, nothing, or very near it. Even DJs will probably have it much easier with the advancements in the CD players/mixers made for them, maybe in ten years even vinyls will finally be outdated as a DJ format.
So, what does this mean?
Well, the big labels will find a way to pull through this. They always do. They survived the cassettes, the CD Burning and still are holding their ground against file-sharing (the technological advancement of copying music over the last few decades), and in the worst case, they can just restructure themselves with a new economical model - which may be painful, but the bigger the label, the more expendables. The very small labels will probably adapt too - or new ones will pop up with a totally new way of work instead.
With the massive advancements in home studios, in ten years the difference in sound quality between the low end and the high end will be very small indeed - remember, only five years ago the low-end was impulse tracker and the high end was basically the same as it is today (minus some production tricks), and today we get 100% digital work from total newcomers that at the very least sounds proffesional.
But, what'll happen to the artists through all this? A guess of mine is that they'd sell their music directly, on-line, for low prices. 50 cents a track (hey, at that price, I'd buy over 400 tracks a year, maybe even more), one thousand buys, and most labels aren't that generous with you for releasing a track on a compilation. In this case, the recording industry will be reduced to PR, recording studios, proffesional soundmen and... that's it really. But this is assuming that file-sharing won't plague these kinds of releases as well (for that price I can only hope that people will see file sharing as total lack of respect - there's no excuse not to shell out 50 cents for your favorite track at the time).
Let's assume that the labels will still control the sales - but online. They'll still be able to have a decent profit margin, if they work at a bare-bones level with very few people to pay.
But, let's think of something else. Let's say everything breaks down. Artists don't make money selling their music at all, unless it's for a movie or TV show or whatever, and even then it's not much. The labels have all passed away, the dinosaurs of the industry finally meeting their end after fighting with a cataclysm, the ability to record music at home, for decades.
OK, so, artists will still be able to perform and make money that way - hell, a lot of the bigger artists say that they oppose what the RIAA is doing since the labels/middlemen take most of the money they make from record sales anyways, and over 90% of their profit is from gigs, and that it's been that way for years before file-sharing ever occured. A lot of artists look at file-sharing as the best free publicity out there - evem if they'd like making more money from record sales.
But what about the studio-junkies that don't play live, or at least don't want to. What will be their options?
Will there be more acts pulling an S-Range (getting a sponser and become walking advertisements... Steinberg in S-Range's case)? Probably. In the most bleak scenario of all, the music industry will become nothing more than people playing in parties and pubs, the more famous ones in theaters stadiums, and anyone who tries to make money will have to keep his mind on what sponsors will like and what the crowd will dig in a performance.
Again, we'll see the case when a decent drummer is more of an asset than a studio genius to a band, when flashy clothing with a Yamaha logo will be common in live acts, and the underground will remain underground, only paid even less.
These are just a few of the possible outcomes of the unstopable technological advancement. You think this sounds a bit too extreme? Well, then twenty years then. It is inevitable.
The labels will either change extremely, or die out. Becoming a successful artist will be much harder - as more and more people will make music at higher and higher production quality and all of it will be easily accessible to millions over millions of people, and as for the mainstream, well, MTV will still be there, and there'll still be full football stadiums for Madonna. But psytrance as a VERY studio-based music will have to change radically.
Be warned, and don't say no one told you that day is coming. As for us, nothing we can do but wait.
  http://www.myspace.com/Hooloovoo222 |
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Mike A
Subra
Started Topics :
185
Posts :
3954
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 15:27
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This means a lot of people are going to get unemployed. Not only the labels - the record stores, cover designers, cd pressing factories.
Pirating is going to be much more easier since everything is downloadble.
Anyway, my HD space & bandwidth aren't that big yet, although I do plan to make non-lossy rips of my CD's when I can.
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Basilisk
IsraTrance Full Member
Started Topics :
168
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2984
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 17:31
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I wrote something very close to this not so long ago... gave the future-point a joking name: the piracy singularity  I would tend to agree that you cannot fight the future - better to grow with it and change. Labels expending time and effort to combat piracy today are probably wasting their time.
You're correct to touch upon the issue of live performances - and this is indeed where artists will be making most of their dough. Studio-artists like you mention may be completely out of luck (I don't see the advertising/sponsorship tie-ins being that widespread but I could be surprised). It is unfortunate, as not all artists want to tour or play gigs, but that seems to be the new paradigm.
The good news is, with faster computers and higher bandwidth perhaps virtual performances are on the way? Perhaps this would satisfy the studio-musician - play a set from the comfort of your own home to subscribers on a radio network of their own devising? Who knows, but I see some potential in following that avenue as technology accelerates. Its possible now of course, but not so practical. And who would pay? That's a discussion for a later date...
Anyhoo, 'Copy Kills Your Music' is a fairly popular saying these days... maybe in a while they'll be whistling a different tune - "Can't Stop the Copy"
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tasty_yakir
Inactive User
Started Topics :
5
Posts :
57
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 17:42
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without piratical downloads
most of you would never know about the artists you know these days probably !
i love technology
however you have to be responsible with the tech otherwish we will really be in troubles |
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nobody_3
Inactive User
Started Topics :
13
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1177
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 17:52
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Wonder how people learned about artists and bands before the internet?
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krelm
IsraTrance Full Member
Started Topics :
67
Posts :
648
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 18:22
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Quote:
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On 2003-10-16 17:52, Elysium Project wrote:
Wonder how people learned about artists and bands before the internet?
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Hearing it in parties, copied DATs, CDs/vinyls ripped to tapes, etc.
My personal introduction was a bunch of vinyls that a DJ recorded to a tape, randomly gave to a friend of a friend, who gave it to my friend, who played it for me. So basically some form of piracy. Still though, even if the first time you heard something was through some form of piracy (which yes, is common in psy scene), that isn't justification for continuing the habit.
I know a lot of people whose first exposure was through pirated copies (myself included) who immediately spent weeks or months trying to figure out where the hell they could buy the music.
Anyways, as long as their are still collectors, CDs and vinyl will still sell. Maybe not as much as at the peak 5 or so years ago, but I still don't see a total collapse of the music industry. Face it...artists don't have enough time to produce tracks, market them, and create a web-base distribution and sales system. They need the services a (good) label provides to get their music and their name out there. Even if they expect to make the bulk of their money from live gigs, they still have to have some sort of promotion behind them in order for people to know who the hell they are.
Labels aren't going anywhere. They may come up with other means of distribution that take advantage of the internet, but they aren't going away.
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Dr. Krelm DJ Mixes and Broken Symmetry archives - http://www.krelmatrix.com
Broken Symmetry on MCast - coming in 2007.... |
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nobody_3
Inactive User
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13
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1177
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 18:40
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it was meant ironic as a respond to tasty_yakir's post krelm 
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Anak
Anakoluth
Started Topics :
108
Posts :
2395
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 19:00
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off-topica...
i love technology too tasty_yakir. but we all know these horrorstories what probably could happen in the future (from movies like kubrick's 2001 - A.S.O.). and we are on the way to there.
some of the techies available now are pure lifesavers, or even necessarities. but some are only luxury, not more.
in the future not only music related firms will make big unemployees, in every branch human will sooner or later get unused. as the machine raised up ppl lost their jobs.....and we will lose em all in decades (if the curve of progress continues this way).
human builds his own grave. lets stop it? everything is ok as it is now (not regarding the download/copy issue).....
Anakoluth A Pebble in Your Eardrum's Shoe since 2001!
http://www.myspace.com/anakoluth
http://www.ektoplazm.com/profiles/anakoluth/
http://cronomi.com |
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krelm
IsraTrance Full Member
Started Topics :
67
Posts :
648
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 21:44
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Quote:
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On 2003-10-16 18:40, Elysium Project wrote:
it was meant ironic as a respond to tasty_yakir's post krelm
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Yeah I know, but I think it is a useful topic of discussion anyways since it seems one of the common responses to the whole downloading/mp3 argument is "nobody would know about trance without downloading!!".
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Dr. Krelm DJ Mixes and Broken Symmetry archives - http://www.krelmatrix.com
Broken Symmetry on MCast - coming in 2007.... |
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medir
Inactive User
Started Topics :
113
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1193
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 22:04
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...i m shure the "industry" finds a way...even the small ones. via paycards, abonements,...like the train and whatever...todays cash-cards are the way to it.
and about much unemployees: it s possible to control stuff only with your minds ( plug in the brain )...today only primitive variants...imagine in 20 years or so...u concentrate on some robos which building your new house...only a few ppl are needed for that...
the future is bright, best viewed in technicolor
--<P.L.U.R.>--
experiment !
make it your motto day and night.
experiment,
and it will lead you to the light.
the apple on the top of the tree
is never too high to achieve,
so take an example from eve...
experiment ! |
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medir
Inactive User
Started Topics :
113
Posts :
1193
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 22:06
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...yeah...in '95...the www was kool...already developed but still small...
nice post kaz !
experiment !
make it your motto day and night.
experiment,
and it will lead you to the light.
the apple on the top of the tree
is never too high to achieve,
so take an example from eve...
experiment ! |
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traveller
IsraTrance Senior Member
Started Topics :
234
Posts :
3803
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 23:06
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there's a limit to how fast data can be transfered.. our insfratructure can't handle more that xxx amount a second.. getting faster than that would mean that all houses would have fiber optic cables.. and those cost like 1000€ a meter.. i don't think they will ever spread from the urban areas to not so urban areas.. then there's also wlan but that shit don't work if the weather is bad enough.. dloading 5 gb dvd image will be a pain.. no matter what.. and how fast should the hds be, 100 000rpm? to write down all the data received? and there are always people who want to own the originals..
"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program."
- Larry Niven |
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Pavel
Troll
Started Topics :
312
Posts :
8646
Posted : Oct 16, 2003 23:42
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Quote:
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On 2003-10-16 23:06, traveller wrote:
there's a limit to how fast data can be transfered.. our insfratructure can't handle more that xxx amount a second.. getting faster than that would mean that all houses would have fiber optic cables.. and those cost like 1000€ a meter.. i don't think they will ever spread from the urban areas to not so urban areas.. then there's also wlan but that shit don't work if the weather is bad enough.. dloading 5 gb dvd image will be a pain.. no matter what.. and how fast should the hds be, 100 000rpm? to write down all the data received? and there are always people who want to own the originals..
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Bullshit, there's no limitation whatsoever on bitrate with fiber optics, and their prices are cheaper than you might guess, it's basically just a modified glass. The limit is on the Trancievers, todays equipment available on the market allows Gigabit transmission, and as for HD's, well, there are brand new MO (Magneto Optic)storage devices on the way.
So don't worry, the only visible limit is in the CPU architecture and it shouldn't worry you too much, today's CPU's can handle pretty good Gigabit connections.
Everyone in the world is doing something without me |
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medir
Inactive User
Started Topics :
113
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1193
Posted : Oct 17, 2003 00:50
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 hd's of the future are "non-mechanic" ( rpm )...they experiment on quantum-level. also about fiber-optics...in some years, the hole core of cpu's is done optical...dig some (e.g. ibm ) research pages.
times changing everything...some ppl some hundred years ago really thought that our earth is a plate...
...first the "MO's" =(-;
bom
experiment !
make it your motto day and night.
experiment,
and it will lead you to the light.
the apple on the top of the tree
is never too high to achieve,
so take an example from eve...
experiment ! |
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Mike A
Subra
Started Topics :
185
Posts :
3954
Posted : Oct 17, 2003 02:37
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Less moving parts is good 
Anyway, there should be those memory cards of 5-6 GB. Put it in a memory card slot in your computer.
You go to the label website, choose an album to download, or make a collection of tracks yourself.
You buy it, and in about 5 minutes the entire thing is downloaded directly to your card.
You can put your card in your cellphone, and plug headphones to it while jogging. You can slide it into the TV to see some party footage, and an interview. Put it inside the e-book to read some info about the artist.
etc etc etc... That's how I see the future.
No need for those big round things  A memory card (like those ultra-cool sony memory sticks), which is not read only (put whatever album you want on it) is the future!
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