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Music sharing doesn't kill CD sales.
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Cyber Punk
IsraTrance Team
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 16:05
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Music sharing doesn't kill CD sales, study says
By John Borland
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
A study of file-sharing's effects on music sales says online music trading appears to have had little part in the recent slide in CD sales.
For the study, released Monday, researchers at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina tracked music downloads over 17 weeks in 2002, matching data on file transfers with actual market performance of the songs and albums being downloaded. Even high levels of file-swapping seemed to translate into an effect on album sales that was "statistically indistinguishable from zero," they wrote.
"We find that file sharing has only had a limited effect on record sales," the study's authors wrote. "While downloads occur on a vast scale, most users are likely individuals who would not have bought the album even in the absence of file sharing."
The study, the most detailed economic modeling survey to use data obtained directly from file-sharing networks, is sure to rekindle debates over the effects of widely used software such as Kazaa or Morpheus on an ailing record business.
Big record labels have seen their sales slide precipitously in the past several years, and have blamed the falling revenue in large part on rampant free music downloads online. Others have pointed to additional factors, such as lower household spending during the recession, and increased competition from other entertainment forms such as DVDs and video games, each of which have grown over the same time period.
Executives at file-sharing companies welcomed the survey, saying it should help persuade reluctant record company executives to use peer-to-peer networks as distribution channels for music "We welcome sound research into the developing peer-to-peer industry, and this study appears to have covered some interesting ground," said Nikki Hemming, chief executive officer of Kazaa parent Sharman Networks. "Consider the possibilities if the record industry actually cooperated with companies like us instead of fighting."
The study, performed by Harvard Business School associate professor Felix Oberholzer and University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill associate professor Koleman Strumpf, used logs from two OpenNap servers in late 2002 to observe about 1.75 million downloads over their 17 week sample period.
That sample revealed interesting behavioral, as well as economic, data. Researchers found that the average user logged in only twice during that period, downloading about 17 songs. Some people vastly overshot that average, however--one user apparently logged in 71 times, downloading more than 5,000 songs.
The two professors narrowed their sample base by choosing a random sample of 500 albums from the sales charts of various music genres, and then compared the sales of these albums to the number of associated downloads.
Even in the most pessimistic version of their model, they found that it would take about 5,000 downloads to displace sales of just one physical CD, the authors wrote. Despite the huge scale of downloading worldwide, that would be only a tiny contribution to the overall slide in album sales over the past several years, they said.
Moreover, their data seemed to show that downloads could even have a slight positive effect on the sales of the top albums, the researchers said.
The study is unlikely to be the last word on the issue. Previous studies have been released showing that file sharing had both positive and negative effects on music sales.
The Recording Industry Association of America was quick to dismiss the results as inconsistent with earlier findings.
"Countless well-respected groups and analysts, including Edison Research, Forrester, and the University of Texas, among others, have all determined that illegal file sharing has adversely impacted the sales of CDs," RIAA spokeswoman Amy Weiss said in a statement. "Our own surveys show that those who are downloading more are buying less."
http://news.com.com/2100-1027_3-5181562.html
  -=Lead System Designer=- |
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Alex Candy
IsraTrance Full Member
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 16:17
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depends on which music styles the studies targeted, I bet they never touched psy trance so this is a gross generilisation and does not apply to this scene...
This is an underground scene which needs support from all !! For most of the psy trance labels out there every single cd purchase counts and every download is a loss..the above is no excuse for downloading and sharing..this kills undergound music... |
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Acidhive
IsraTrance Full Member
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 16:22
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I totally agree with Alex Candy here. The psytrance scene needs cd-sales. I always buy my psytrance legally (I order it @ psyshop) . Copying kills music, as you can always read in the Medium Records cd's... 
"Subconscious unravels at the point of death, and all time it has known erupts into a moment. As death extinguishes us, so we become it."
[Esoteric: Subconscious Dissolution Into The Continuum] |
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Insomniac
IsraTrance Junior Member
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306
Posted : Apr 1, 2004 16:29
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I totally agree with Alex Candy this study doesn't or can't be aplied to the psytrance scene for one simple reason, the market on our scene is so small one dowload makes a diference. |
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krelm
IsraTrance Full Member
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 17:09
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Here is a response I sent to an email list where this was posted - my response was based on the original study (text at http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/strumab.htm ), so I refer directly to a few things in there:
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I think it really depends on which specific sub-market you are examining.
It appears in the study that they used specifically large-market CD sales ("...Nielsen SoundScan (2002), which tracks music purchases at over 14,000 retail, mass merchant and on-line stores in the United States.", looking at genres Alternative Albums, Hard Music, Jazz Current, etc..). The statistics and model they use won't specifically apply to smaller markets (indie rock, elecronic, black metal, industrial, etc.) - it's probably even pointless to try to apply statistics to a market where an average CD will only sell 500-3000 copies. The sample is too small.
You also have to take into account that some musical genres (specifically electronic) are much more DJ-based, which is sure to throw a few more curves to their model. Their mathematical treatment of "album popularity" would surely be different. There would also be a necessary time factor somewhere since the majority of DJ sales tend to fall off drastically with time. For vinyl-based DJ markets (pretty much all but downtempo & psytrance), the entire model is probably wholly invalid. Even in CD-based markets with a large percentage of DJ-buyers, it is going to be greatly skewed. Music has a shorter lifetime in general for DJs.
Then there are also anomalies which will effect a smaller market more than the larger market which they examine. A CD leaked prior to the release date will have a greater effect on the album popularity for a 500-3000 selling CD in a DJ-based market than it will for a 500,000 selling CD in a mostly end-consumer market.
You also have to accept their overall model as valid, which unfortunately I don't know enough mathematical economics to fully judge. 
All in all, I think it is definitely a good piece and is applicable to the specific sample they look at (mainstream music sales, the largely dominant part of the music industry) - the RIAA should take note. But when it comes to smaller markets (such as psytrance which is probably the point of the original post), it's not going to fit in the least bit.
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Dr. Krelm DJ Mixes and Broken Symmetry archives - http://www.krelmatrix.com
Broken Symmetry on MCast - coming in 2007.... |
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ChoBo
IsraTrance Junior Member
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536
Posted : Apr 1, 2004 17:44
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Alex is da man  In other words, the study conducted by those in Harvard itself is "unrepresentative" especially for psytrance. Downloading Albums? What albums? Pop?
I am not so sure about the modeling concept krelm but it's a good point as well. However it doesnt explain the reality of it clearly. Models are just a simplified representation of reality. |
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Stash
IsraTrance Full Member
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 19:27
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even if it doesnot hurt cd sales
why download crappy MP3 files ........
apart from supporting the scene/djs/artists the main reason i buy albums is because of the superior sound quality on the CDs......
they really do justice to the artist's hard work and effort put into the track
bOm shiva!!! 
At the end there is a DOOR & waiting for you on the other side of that door is either HEAVEN or HELL |
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Acidhive
IsraTrance Full Member
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 20:05
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Well spoken Stashbag  |
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DETOX
Moderator
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296
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Posted : Apr 1, 2004 23:53
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I aggree with Alex on this one.
For example in Greece all the 'psy trance freaks' have the new Astrix album but only 10% of them have it original.
The rest is copies or just files download from the net.
Toodaloo Motherfuckers!!!!! |
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SenstatuX
IsraTrance Junior Member
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320
Posted : Apr 2, 2004 08:12
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who gives a shit if people download britney spears or mickel jacksson or whatever new cd´s they have like 1000000000000000000000000000000............$ anyway.. but in here, the artist need every single $ they can come over buy the sales, so BUY THE CD`S!!
PluR..
i live for this moment here... |
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Trip-
IsraTrance Team
Started Topics :
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Posted : Apr 2, 2004 08:16
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indeed folks.
This thread has no shread of connection to our small scene.
Crackling universes dive into their own neverending crackle...
AgalactiA |
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karmasy
Started Topics :
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78
Posted : Apr 2, 2004 12:00
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I agree, this is a completely different ball game, and doesn't affect mainstreams artist survival money |
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joeking
Started Topics :
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Posted : Apr 3, 2004 06:34
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I think it's safe to say that our scene has grown over the last 7 years or so. It's subjective, but just in terms of the geographical spread and the number of parties and number of people attending parties in countries like Japan, South Africa and Brazil, to name but a few, tells you that.
Yet, at the same time the it's also true that CD and vinyl sales of psytrance are *vastly* lower during that time. There are many more labels and releases these day, but still, if you talk to distributors you will find that overall sales are still much lower. This tells you what the effect that downloading has.
I personally know many many DJ's who simply don't buy *anything* anymore, and they justify it by saying that they are promoting the music by playing it at parties. |
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Localsky
IsraTrance Junior Member
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Posted : Apr 3, 2004 09:03
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Quote:
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On 2004-04-01 16:17, Alex Candy wrote:
depends on which music styles the studies targeted, I bet they never touched psy trance so this is a gross generilisation and does not apply to this scene...
This is an underground scene which needs support from all !! For most of the psy trance labels out there every single cd purchase counts and every download is a loss..the above is no excuse for downloading and sharing..this kills undergound music...
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I really disagree. If you want to write about gross generalizations lets discuss the gross generalization or misapprehension that every album downloaded equals a lost album sale for a record label. That is completely impracticable. People download albums because there is no investment to lose. Since there is no investment to lose, there is no risk. So clearly sometimes people download an album they would never buy. So don’t believe just because someone has downloaded an album, they would also buy that album if it was not available over file sharing.
I do agree every CD purchase counts for an underground (psytrance) label, but can’t you admit file sharing has increased psytrance sales at least to some extent through exposure? I was only exposed to psytrance through file sharing and now I have gone on to spend hundreds and hundreds of dollars on psytrance CDs. I have a hard time believing that online file sharing hurts psytrance music sales for this reason. For a small genre of music I believe the benefits of file sharing outweigh the negatives (a benefit the larger record companies do not have). To express why I believe this in the simplest terms: a greater percentage of individuals purchase psytrance music due to exposure to psytrance from file sharing, opposed to the percentage of individuals that do not purchase psytrance music because psytrance music is available free in file sharing. The exposure that file sharing gives a small genre of music, like psytrance, is invaluable. I could be wrong but that it what I have always believed.
my cat is deathly afraid of aluminum foil |
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joeking
Started Topics :
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Posted : Apr 3, 2004 09:09
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Quote:
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a greater percentage of individuals purchase psytrance music due to exposure to psytrance from file sharing, opposed to the percentage of individuals that do not purchase psytrance music because psytrance music is available free in file sharing. The exposure that file sharing gives a small genre of music, like psytrance, is invaluable. I could be wrong but that it what I have always believed.
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You believe this possibly because it applies to you. But I personally know 20+ DJ's who used to buy 10-20 new CDs/vinyls every month. But now, *none* of them *ever* buy anything - they download 100% of everything they play.  |
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